Looking back, I realize it is a plus that I became aware of the Oscars around the age of 10, because, at that age, I did not think of the Academy Awards as being something political.
While I can clearly see the political aspects nowadays, there is still a little bit of that naivety I have held on to that translates into this being the best night of the year for movies, even if the “best” never really comes out on top.
That said, I’ve been doing my predictions since I was 13, so I have no intention of stopping now.
Best Picture
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- A Complete Unknown
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Emilia Pérez
- I’m Still Here
- Nickel Boys
- The Substance
- Wicked
In the last few years, the race for the biggest award seemed to have two scenarios: a race between two films (La La Land vs Moonlight, The Power of the Dog vs CODA, etc) or one clear winner (Everything Everywhere all at Once, Oppenheimer). This year, there are at least three or so potentials that could win, and that is both aggravating and thrilling.
For the second half of the 2010s, I missed best picture every year for one reason or another. I definitely don’t like being wrong, but I am fine if I miss it this year because it is truly up in the air. That said, being that Anora won the DGA, PGA, and WGA, I am going with that.
Will win: Anora
Could win: Conclave/The Brutalist
Best Director
- Jacque Audiard – Emilia Pérez
- Sean Baker – Anora
- Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
- Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
- James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
Historically, no guild is more predictive of a winner than the directors, and going against it would be difficult. Therefore, despite a possible upset with Corbet, I am going Sean Baker for Anora.
Will win: Sean Baker
Could win: Brady Corbet
Best Actor
- Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
- Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
- Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
- Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
- Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice
As tight as any race this year, it is clearly between Brody and Chalamet. While SAG did award Chalamet, the voting period was not the same as years past (due to the LA fires). Plus, Brody has won most of the rest of the other important precursors. Still, actors make up the majority of the Academy voting body, Brody has won before, and (mainly) the acting awards of the Oscars in the 21st century have almost always had one time when the winner was playing a historical figure (only twice did that not happen). I am going Chalamet, but by a shade.
Will win: Timothée Chalamet
Could win: Brody
Best Actress
- Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
- Karla Sofia Gascón – Emilia Pêrez
- Mikey Madison – Anora
- Demi Moore – The Substance
- Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here
It is possible that Madison wins here if Anora wins Picture and Director (and another award I think it will win, but that is coming up). There is also still the possible upset with Torres, but I think there is more than enough love for Demi Moore to push her past the finish line (she will most likely get a standing ovation as well).
Will win: Demi Moore
Could win: Mikey Madison/Fernanda Torres
Best Supporting Actor
- Yura Borisov – Anora
- Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
- Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
- Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
- Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice
The night has a few near locks, but none as locky as this one. There is no runner up. Culkin is winning.
Will win: Kieran Culkin
Best Supporting Actress
- Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
- Ariane Grande – Wicked
- Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
- Conclave – Isabella Rossellini
- Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez
The controversies (we tend to forget those before star Gascon had her tweets revealed) surrounding Emilia Pèrez will certainly hurt it on Oscar night. In fact, I only have it winning one, but that is mainly because Saldaña has won as much (if not the same amount) as Culkin, and (most importantly) is the one thing even haters of the film can’t deny.
Will win: Zoe Saldaña
Could win: Ariane Grande/Rossellini….but not really.
(For a full list of the nominees, click here)
Best Animated Feature
This (along with Best Actor) is a nail biter. It is a battle of the head pic (The Wild Robot) and the heart pic (Flow). Being that the Academy is more international nowadays, and that Flow was my favorite movie of 2024, I am going Flow.
Will win: Flow
Could win: The Wild Robot
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Anora
Could win: A Real Pain
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Conclave
Could win: Nickel Boys
Best International Feature
Will win: I’m Still Here
Could win: Emilia Pérez
Best Documentary Feature
Will win: Porcelain War
Could win: Sugarcane (the only one of the nominees I saw)
Best Film Editing
Will win: Conclave
Could win: Anora/The Brutalist
Best Cinematography
Will win: The Brutalist
Could/Should win: Nosferatu
Best Original Score
Will/Should win: The Brutalist (BA DA DA DAAAA!)
Could win: Conclave
Best Original Song
With the controversies and the fact that two songs are nominated from Emilia Pérez, I’m going out on a limb of sorts and saying the time has finally come for Diane Warren.
Will win: “The Journey” – The Six Triple Eight
Could win: Any of the songs from Emilia Pérez
Best Production Design
Will win: Wicked
Could win: The Brutalist
Best Costume Design
Will/Should win: Wicked
Could win: No idea (Wicked should have this locked)
Best Make-up/Hairstyling
Will win/Should win: The Substance
Even if the movie did not entirely work for you, you can’t deny the make up. This is another lock of the night with no real runner up.
Best Sound
Will win: Dune, Pt. 2
Best Visual Effects
Will win/Should win: Dune, Pt. 2
Best Animated Short
(the only “shorts” category I managed to see all of this year since my local theater was not playing them anymore 😦 )
Will win/Should win: Yuck!
Best Documentary Short
Will win: I am Ready, Warden
Best Live Action, Short
Will win: Anuja
Nothing else to say 