My 2026 Oscar Predictions

I’m tired

Tired of playing the game

Ain’t it a crying shame

I’m so tired

In Blazing Saddles (1974), Lili Von Sctup (the late Madaline Kahn) was tired of all the romancing (among other things), I am tired of this Award season.

Granted, the one plus is always that my birthday is in March, so the end of the season being near my birthday is always fun. Yet this year seems to just have gone on for far too long. Thankfully, it is also one of the more exciting years of recent memory, because I am unsure about a lot of my picks.

Nevertheless, I’ve been doing this for a little over a quarter century, so here we go.

(* is used for films I have not seen)

Best Live Action Short

• Butcher’s Stain*
• A Friend of Dorothy*
• Jane Austen’s Period Drama
• The Singers
• Two People Exchanging Saliva

While I was a fan of the rare comedic nominated short Jane Austen’s’s Period Drama, and The Singers had a nice pulse to its soul, the originality and visual flair of Two People Exchanging Saliva should give it the win. 

Confidence level:

Best Documentary Short

• All the Empty Rooms
• Armed Only with a Camera
• Children No More: Were and Are Gone*
• The Devil is Busy
• Perfectly a Strangeness

As someone who was at a school shooting, I have no choice but to pick All the Empty Rooms.

Confidence Level:

Best Animated Short

• Butterfly
• Forevergreen
• The Girl Who Cried Pearls
• Retirement Plan
• The Three Sisters*

Expect the unique (and beautiful) artistry of the watercolor Butterfly to be the winner.

Confidence Level:

Best Documentary Feature

• The Alabama Solution
• Come See Me in the Good Light*
• Cutting Through Rocks*
• Mr. Nobody Against Putin
• The Perfect Neighbor

A part of me is thinking it will go to Putin, but my mind is overriding that feeling and going with The Perfect Neighbor.

Confidence Level:

Best International Film

• It was Just an Accident
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sirât*
• The Voice of Hind Rajab*

There are a lot of Brazilian voters, so there is a chance for The Secret Agent to win, but I’m still going with Sentimental Value.

Confidence Level:

Best Animated Feature

• Arco*
• Elio
• KPop Demon Hunters
• Little Amélie or the Character of Rain*
• Zootopia 2

One of the easiest of the night. KPop for the win, and deservedly so.

Confidence Level:

Best Original Song

• Diane Warren: Relentless – “Dear Me”*
• KPop Demon Hunters – “Golden”
• Sinners – “I Lied to You”
• Train Dreams – “Train Dreams”
• Viva Verdi! – “Sweet Dreams of Joy”*

Sorry, Diane Warren, but this is another easy win for KPop (although there could be a small chance of a win for Sinners).

Confidence Level:

Best Visual Effects

• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• F1
• Jurassic World Rebirth
• The Lost Bus*
• Sinners

Another easy one. It is near impossible to deny the visual effects done with the help of James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash.

Confidence Level:

Best Sound

• F1
• Frankenstein
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Sirât*

This is the one place where F1 can cross the finish line, and rightly so.

Confidence Level:

Best Original Score

• Bugonia
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners

Of all the record-breaking 16 nominations for Sinners, this is the most likely to win.

Confidence Level:

Best Make-Up

• Frankenstein
• Kokuho*
• The Smashing Machine
• Sinners
• The Ugly Stepsister*

This is all Frankenstein.

Confidence Level:

Best Costume Design

• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• Sinners

Again, expect it to go to Frankenstein.

Confidence Level:

Best Production Design

• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners

There is a small chance for Marty Supreme here (and it’s long-time nominated Jack Fisk to win finally), but I’m still going with Frankenstein.

Confidence Level:

Best Casting

• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• The Secret Agent
• Sinners

This is the first time the category has been recognized, so there is no established precedent. I will go with the flow and say Sinners.

Confidence Level:

Best Cinematography

• Frankenstein
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Train Dreams

While I would love Train Dreams to get recognition here, this will go to One Battle After Another.

Confidence Level:

Best Film Editing

• F1
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners

That road chase scene at the end is more than enough to give this to One Battle After Another.

Confidence Level:

Best Original Screenplay

• Blue Moon
• It was Just an Accident
• Marty Supreme
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners

Sinners, period.

Confidence Level:

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Bugonia
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• One Battle After Another
• Train Dreams

One Battle After Another. Both Screenplay categories are easy this year. 

Best Supporting Actress

• Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
• Amy Madigan – Weapons
• Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
• Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another

This has always been one of my better categories at predicting, but this year is so wild that I am still not completely sure. While there are favorites in Mosaku and Taylor, I feel there is enough going on in Madigan’s corner to push her over the finish for her first Oscar.

Confidence Level:

Best Supporting Actor

• Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another
• Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
• Delroy Lindo – Sinners
• Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
• Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value

No other category has me more on edge. You can make the case for almost all of these nominees, and basically, any of them winning would not be a surprise. To be brief, I think it will end up going to Stellan Skarsgård since Penn (whose performance I adored) has already won. Honestly, I would be even happier if Lindo pulled off a win.

Confidence Level:

Best Actress

• Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
• Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You
• Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
• Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
• Emma Stone – Bugonia

There is no easier category to get right this year. All the other nominees know that this is all Jessie Buckley, and rightly so.

Confidence Level: Buckley is not losing this.

Best Actor

• Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
• Leonard DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
• Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
• Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
• Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent

Another one that can go either way, but after his win at the Actor Awards (and seeing all the love and support he was getting), I will go with Michael B. Jordan. If there is an upset here, it would be from Moura.

Confidence Level:

Best Director

• Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
• Ryan Coogler – Sinners
• Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
• Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
• Chloe Zhao – Hamnet

Another fairly easy one to predict, since winning the DGA and having an “it’s time” aspect added on all but guarantees this for Paul Thomas Anderson.

Confidence Level:

Best Picture

• Bugonia
• F1
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners
• Train Dreams

The two-way race between One Battle After Another and Sinners is the closest I can remember in over a decade. I’m going One Battle After Another.

Confidence Level: