Welp, here we go again. I am coming in at the 11th hour, but my predictions are ready. Sadly, I did not get to seeing all I wanted to in time, but such is life.
True, last year I lucked out in going 21/23 (my best to date), but perhaps I am being too modest in saying you should take that with a grain of salt. The only true prediction I know for sure is that Will Smith won’t be there.
Note: As always, I know nothing about the idea of betting odds or anything, so don’t come yelling at me if you lose money.
Best Live Action Short
- An Irish Goodbye
- Ivalu
- Night Ride
- Le Pupille
- The Red Suitcase
Sadly, I only got around to one of these, but being that it is the favorite (and has Alfonzo Cuaron attached to it), I will go with Le Pupille.
Will win: Le Pupille
Best Documentary Short
- The Elephant Whispers
- Haulout
- How do you measure a year?
- The Martha Mitchell Effect
- Stranger at the Gate
Having seen three of these, my clear favorite is the beautifully gut wrenching Haulout, a movie I was so enthralled by I thought it was a short film and not documentary. That said, my second favorite, The Elephant Whisperers (which you can find on Netflix), is more heartfelt and adorable.
Will win: The Elephant Whisperers
Should win: Haulout
Best Animated Short
- The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse.
- The Flying Sailor
- Ice Merchants
- My year of Dicks
- An Ostrich told me the world is fake and I think I believe it
Having seen only two, the truly stirring The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse is a favorite that is deserving. That said, I admit to laughing (and cringing) enough to say I am going to find it amazing if the Academy goes with My Year of Dicks, so I am going with that.
Will win: My Year of Dicks
Should win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse.
Best Visual Effects
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- The Batman
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Top Gun: Maverick
Certaintly one of the surest bets of the night (if not the number one surest), even the most hardcore haters of Avatar: The Way of Water cannot say a bad thing about the truly other worldly visuals.
Will win/Should win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Sound
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- The Batman
- Elvis
- Top Gun: Maverick
Sadly, this is the only true chance at a win for Top Gun: Maverick, but it will be deserved.
Will win/Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Make-up & Hairstyling
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- The Batman
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Elvis
- The Whale
A showdown that will be reminiscent of the Best Actor race, I am going with Elvis.
Will win: Elvis
Could win: The Whale
Best Costume Design
- Babylon
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Elvis
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Mrs. Harris goes to Paris
Once could make an argument for another win for Wakanda‘s Ruth Carter, or the extravagance of Babylon (still unseen by me as of yet). I choose to go with the multi decade costumes displayed in Elvis.
Will win: Elvis
Best Production Design
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- Babylon
- Elvis
- The Fabelmans
I’ve seen many think this category will go to Babylon, but I have also heard it is not the most popular of movies in the academy. That said, I again am going with Elvis.
Will win: Elvis
Could win: Babylon
Best Original Song
- “Applause” – Tell it Like a Woman
- “Hold my Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick
- “Life Me Up”- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- “Naatu Naatu” – RRR
- “This is a Life” – Everything, Everywhere All at Once
There was a time when I thought this was the shot to finally give Rhianna an Oscar for her work on “Life me Up”, or even for David Byrne’s “This is a Life”…then I got seduced and under the hypnotic spell of the brilliant “Naatu Naatu” from RRR. I even did a TikTok video of it. You heard me.
Will win/Should win: “Naatu Naatu” – RRR
(short break as I watch the video of “Naatu Naatu”)
Best Original Score
- All Quiet on the Western Front – Volker Bertelmann
- Babylon – Justin Hurwitz
- The Banshees of Inisherin – Curter Burwell
- Everything Everywhere All at Once – Son Lux
- The Fabelmans – John Williams
I am as wishful as anyone that we can see John Williams win one last Oscar (even though he has four), but I doubt it will be this year. I am going with the All Quiet on the Western Front‘s Volker Bertelmann. That music was easily one of the best parts of the film.
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could Win: Babylon
Best Cinematography
- All Quiet on the Western Front – James Friend
- Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths – Darius Khondi
- Elvis – Mandy Walker
- Empire of Light – Roger Deakins
- Tár – Florian Hoffmeister
Mandy Walker is one of the very few female nominees in this category, but will not be the first female winner. Not when going against the stellar work of James Friend’s work on All Quiet on the Western Front.
Will win/Should win: All Quiet on the Western Front.
Best Film Editing
- The Banshees of Inisherin – Mikkell E.G. Nielsen
- Elvis – Matt Villa & Jonathan Redmond
- Everything Everywhere All at Once – Paul Rogers
- Tár – Monika Willi
- Top Gun: Maverick – Eddie Hamilton
In this situation, “best” also means “most”. That said, expect it to go to Everything Everywhere All at Once.
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
- All that Breathes
- All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
- Fire of Love
- A House made of Splinters
- Navalny
I really wish I disciplined myself this year, and watched more than just the one. At least I managed to watch the favorite and timely nominee, Navalny.
Will win: Navalny
- All Quiet on the Western Front – Germany
- Argentina, 1985 – Argentina
- Close – Belgium
- EO – Poland
- The Quiet Girl – Ireland
I’m still in line (so to speak) to see the likes of EO and Close (movies I have heard many a good thing about). No matter, since it is hard for a movie to lose this category when it is also nominated for Best Picture. So yeah, don’t bet against All Quiet on the Western Front.
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
- Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
- Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
- Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
- The Sea Beast
- Turning Red
While I was a big fan of Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, betting against Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio would be one of the dumbest things you could bet against.
Will win: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
Should win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
- Living
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Women Talking
While this could go to All Quiet on the Western Front, I am hoping (and I guessing) that this is the main place to honor Sarah Polley for Women Talking.
Will win/Should win: Women Talking
Could win: All Quiet on the Western Front
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Everything, Everywhere All at Once
- The Fabelmans
- Tár
- Triangle of Sadness
Tár was my favorite of 2022, but no other film left me more googly eyed than Everything, Everywhere All at Once.
Will win: Everything, Everywhere all at Once
- Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Hong Chau – The Whale
- Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
- Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything, Everywhere all at Once
- Stephanie Hsu – Everything, Everywhere all at Once
This category is as up in the air as it comes. Many believe it is Bassett’s time, while others think it is Jamie Lee Curtis’s. The same could be said for the others (especially Kerry Condon). The one I am most confident in saying is Jamie Lee Curtis, but don’t quote me on it. This category is anything but certain.
Will win: Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything, Everywhere all at Once
Could win: Any of them.
- Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
- Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
- Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
- Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
- Ke Huy Quan – Everything, Everywhere All at Once
Many years, the Oscars start with one of the supporting categories, especially when one of them are sure things. I would not be surprised if this category starts off the night, because if Ke Huy Quan does not win, it will be a shock of epic proportions. Oscar will hit the Quan. (I need to not be on TikTok as much).
Will win/Should win: Ke Huy Quan – Everything, Everywhere All at Once
- Cate Blanchett – Tár
- Ana De Armas – Blonde
- Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
- Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
- Michelle Yeoh – Everything, Everywhere All at Once
Truly, I can’t remember a race being this close (or at least seeming to be. It is clearly going to be Blanchett or Yeoh. It is so close that if I am wrong, I won’t feel bad about it at all. Since I don’t truly see EEAAO winning three acting Oscars (which would be astonishing), I am going Cate Blanchett. We will be talking a true photo finish here. The only thing as impossible to predict is who will present the award (since Smith won’t be there.)
Will win/Should win: Cate Blanchett – Tár
Could win: Michelle Yeoh – Everything, Everywhere all at Once
- Austin Butler – Elvis
- Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
- Brendan Fraser – The Whale
- Paul Mescal – Aftersun
- Bill Nighy – Living
A race that is not entirely as close as Best Actress, it is still fascinating. Farrell sadly is not in the mix as much, so it is really between Fraser and Butler. Since every year tends to have one acting Oscar win for someone playing a real life person (plus it helps when your movie is nominated for Best Picture), I am going Austin Butler.
Will win: Austin Butler – Elvis
Could Win: Brendan Fraser – The Whale
- Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
- Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert – Everything, Everywhere All at Once
- Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
- Todd Field – Tár
- Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness
Unless there is enough love across the Academy’s age lines for Spielberg, this should be a shoe in for The Daniels.
Will win: The Daniels – Everything, Everywhere All at Once
Could win: Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Elvis
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- The Fabelmans
- Tár
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Triangle of Sadness
- Women Talking
In the last few years, there have been two movies battling it out for Best Picture. This year, that is not the case. Everything Everywhere All at Once is the favorite, and will surely win.
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Nothing else to say 